A Love Letter to Nate Silver:
Ein imaginärer Liebesbrief an Statistik-Obernerd Nate Silver: A Date with Nate. Vom New Yorker: „for a million years I liked Justin Bieber because he was so cute but now I like you. I watched you on MSNBC and HBO and on “Charlie Rose” and I can’t stop thinking about how you study polls and create probability models and predict elections and how you’re always right, which I think is so unbelievably cute, and I keep imagining you saying to me, ‘Emma, I think that there’s a 93.7% chance of me falling in love with you.’“
Drunk Nate Silver is a thing
Funniest Thing on Twitter right now und wahrscheinlich das beste – neben dem Wahlergebnis –, das diese US-Wahl hervorgebracht hat: Drunk Nate Silver. Nate Silver ist der Nerd-Gott gewordene Statistiker der NYTimes, der das Wahlergebnis fast exakt prognostiziert und damit der kompletten Rechten in Amerika eine verpasst hatte, und zwar mit Fakten. Die Wahl ist quasi sowas wie eine „Revenge of the Nerds“. I love this so much.
Hier ein paar meiner Favs:
- Drunk Nate Silver emails George Lucas the exact time and location of “A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away.”
- Drunk Nate Silver holds up cadaver of Punxsutawney Phil with his left hand, bellowing “Winter is coming.”
- A drunk Nate Silver just ate his casio calculator watch thus completing the transformation
- Drunk Nate Silver points at the night sky. The star he is pointing at flickers then dies.
- Drunk Nate Silver is at the New York Stock Exchange in his sweats, eating from a bowl of popcorn, and laughing at people.
- Meatloaf does that for love, Drunk Nate Silver smirks quietly in the background
- Drunk Nate Silver shames pizza delivery man into free pizza after showing graph of declining delivery time. Still tips.
- Drunk Nate Silver calls a woman who turned him down in college and whispers “There’s a 74% chance you regret it now, with an upward trend.”
- Drunk Nate Silver counting out exactly five hundred and thirty-eight french fries at McDonalds, then slowly dipping 206 of them in ketchup.
Buzzfeed hat ein paar Drunken Silvers zusammengesucht: Meet “Drunk Nate Silver”.
White People Mourning Romney, the Tumblr
Oh, the Schadenfreude: White People Mourning Romney – The most devastating day. Ich hätte das Ding ja „Idiots having a hard time“ genannt und halte es generell mit Bill Maher, der in einer seiner Real Time-Sendungen mal sagte: „I have no problem with pissing off Conservatives.“ Hell yeah! (Danke Ann!)
Mitt Romneys Transition-Website
Mitt Romneys Transition-Website war für fünf Minuten online, bevor sie den Stecker gezogen haben. Aber das Internet war natürlich schneller und hat Screenshot von dem amerikanischen Alptraum, der gottseidank nie wahr geworden ist: „It appears Mitt Romney’s campaign prepared a transition site in the event that he won. The site was quickly taken down but I saved screenshots.“
World of Warcraft-Player wins her Election
Ihr erinnert Euch an Colleen Lachowicz, die demokratische Kandidatin für den Senat in Maine, die von den Republikanern mit Schmutz beworfen wurde, weil sie World of Warcraft (Level 68 Orc Rogue) zockt? Nun, sie hat gewonnen. Die letzten Tage sind ein reines Fest für Leute, die denken können.
Buoyed by strong support from voters in her home city of Waterville, Democrat Colleen Lachowicz vanquished one-term Republican Sen. Thomas Martin of Benton to capture Senate District 25. Lachowicz’s campaign attracted international attention after the Maine Republican Party created a website to criticize her participation as a player in World of Warcraft, an online fantasy game.
‘World of Warcraft’ candidate vanquishes opponent in Waterville (via Boing Boing)
m00t on Rick Santorums Website
Keiner weiß, wie’s passieren konnte, aber ein Bild von m00t, dem Gründe von 4Chan („The black heart of the Internet“), hat’s auf die Website von Rick Santorum geschafft. Aus einer Mail von Christopher Poole (m00t): „Maybe a user created a profile using my Wikipedia photo as the profile pic, or a designer/intern someone working on the site thought it would be funny. Or I look like a wholesome Tea Partier. Who knows.“
When you navigate to Patriot Voices, a pop up box appears with a bunch of different people’s faces alongside Mr. Santorum’s, ostensibly representing patriots, which by his definition likely refers to fellow sweater vest wearers. One of those pictures, sandwiched in between two photos of Mr. Santorum, is the visage of Chris Poole–a.k.a. Moot, the founder of notorious message board 4chan. The photo is the same one used on Mr. Poole’s Wikipedia page.
Why is Rick Santorum Using a Picture of 4Chan Founder Moot on His ‘Patriots’ Website?
Hier noch ein paar weitere US-Wahl-Bits:
Nate Silver ist Statistiker und hat in seinem FiveThirtyEight-Blog bei der NYTimes das Wahlergebniss nahezu exakt vorausgesagt, weshalb er sich grade zum Nerd-Darling entwickelt. Also: „As of Thursday, November 8th, 2012, Nate Silver is probably a witch.“
His unusually accurate predictions are, thus far, explained by his use of validated statistical methods. His disregard of momentum, gut feelings, and the interpretations of people paid to promote certain viewpoints is not the result of supernatural assistance.
While we on the Is Nate Silver a Witch editorial board are strict rationalists, Mr Silver’s performance has been uncanny enough to raise small but significant doubts as to whether his methodology is entirely of this world. We are following the situation closely.
Nate Silver Facts, Fact: Nate Silver Predicts Election Outcome, Becomes Nerdy Chuck Norris
Reuters: Dead candidates win elections in Florida, Alabama
Romney sings and Obamas Datamining-Campaign
Romney singt und ist fröhlich, alles halb so schlimm. Hier noch Obama mit ‘ner Coverversion von MC Hammers „I can’t touch this“ und was seriöses hab ich auch noch: Das Time Mag, mit ein paar sehr spannenden Details zum Datamining während Obamas Wahlkampf:
“We analyzed very early that the problem in Democratic politics was you had databases all over the place,” said one of the officials. “None of them talked to each other.” So over the first 18 months, the campaign started over, creating a single massive system that could merge the information collected from pollsters, fundraisers, field workers and consumer databases as well as social-media and mobile contacts with the main Democratic voter files in the swing states.
The new megafile didn’t just tell the campaign how to find voters and get their attention; it also allowed the number crunchers to run tests predicting which types of people would be persuaded by certain kinds of appeals. Call lists in field offices, for instance, didn’t just list names and numbers; they also ranked names in order of their persuadability, with the campaign’s most important priorities first. About 75% of the determining factors were basics like age, sex, race, neighborhood and voting record. Consumer data about voters helped round out the picture. “We could [predict] people who were going to give online. We could model people who were going to give through mail. We could model volunteers,” said one of the senior advisers about the predictive profiles built by the data. “In the end, modeling became something way bigger for us in ’12 than in ’08 because it made our time more efficient.”
Inside the Secret World of Data Crunchers Who Helped Obama Win
4 More Years: Congrats, Prez!
„Four more Years.“ (@BarackObama)
Endlich ist der Mumpitz vorbei und Obama kann vier Jahre weitermachen (und so ganz „nebenbei“ haben Colorado und Washington Marijuana als Droge legalisiert). Herzlichen Glückwunsch, Prez! Ich hau hier jetzt einfach nochmal die Links raus, die seit gestern Nacht in meinem Feedreader aufgepoppt sind (am lustigsten ist wohl der Twitter-Meltdown von Donald Trump) und dann kann mich Politik erstmal ganz gewaltig am Hintern küssen. Für zwei Tage oder so.
Gawker: ‘I can’t stop crying. America died’: Donald Trump and Victoria Jackson Melt Down on Twitter
AnonNews: How e-voting machines compare to Vegas slot machines
Netzpolitik: Wählen per eMail – Was kann da schon schief gehen?
Netzpolitik: Infografik vergleicht Online-Wahlkämpfe Obama und Romney
Hyperallergic: Just the Facts: 2012 US Presidential Candidates Arts Positions
Wired: Wrath of the Math: Obama Wins Nerdiest Election Ever
Gizmodo: How Mitt Romney’s Plane Gets Stripped of Mitt Romney Now That He Lost
Gawker: Watch Fox News Chew Its Own Leg Off in a Fury of Recrimination
Gawker: Welcome to the Coming Race War: „Fox is getting increasingly blunt in its racial analysis. Megyn Kelly is talking openly of the ‘racial divide’ in we’re seeing tonight, and Bill O’Reilly is lamenting that ‘the white establishment is now the minority… It’s not a traditional America anymore.’“
Binders full of Burgers: US-Election visualized with Fast Food
Schicke Burger-Visualisierung der US-Wahl von Lisa Rienermann und Anna Lena Schiller: binders full of burgers – visualizing the US Election 2012. with burgers & fries. Die Damen hatten damals bereits die Berliner Wahl mit Waffeln bebildert. (via Netzpolitik)
US-Election Liveblogging (UPDATED)
Ich sammle hier mal so die Links, die ich heute abend zur US-Wahl lesen werde. Jetzt kommen so langsam die Storys rein, die nicht mehr nur pure Spekulation und Bullcrap sind. Relevantere Dingsbumse werde ich auf Facebook und Twitter nochmal betonen. Ich werde vor allem die Berichterstattung der NYTimes (die für heute die Paywall runtergefahren haben und live auf Facebook kommentieren) und der Washington Post, guter Startpunkt dort: The Fix’s Election Night Viewer’s Guide. Dazu schmeisse ich mir den CNN-Livestream an (weitere Livestreams zu US-Nachrichtensendern findet man hier, Alternativen gerne in die Comments) und beobachte Reddit (und ab und zu /b/, weil… you never know).
Hier die ersten paar Links, die grade so reingerutscht sind (abgesehen vom bescheißenden Wahlcomputer):
Facebook Stories: America Votes 2012 – Watch the nation vote in real time: „This map is a representation of people on Facebook who clicked an Election Day prompt to share with their friends that they’re voting in the 2012 US election. The information displayed on Facebook Stories has been anonymized and aggregated. The map displays bursts of activity as people share that they’re voting. The size of each burst matches the number of people voting in that region right now. The histogram shows a record of activity over time, with an additional breakdown by gender and age.“ (Blogeintrag dazu: Election Day 2012 on Facebook)
Wired: Gesture analysis reveals what Obama and Romney care about
[update 17:48] Google Plus Latest Trends: Search Interest in Obama & Romney
Bild oben: Comics with Problems: „Howdy, it’s Election Day in the U.S., so for Comics with Problems #53, here’s a complete set of the “Good Government Comic Book” series, an obscure and very amusing set of three comics geared towards the importance of voting, in 1960. Some of it’s a bit off target and out-dated. (Apologies for the “Dumb Blonde In the Office” line, for example.) But on the whole, these are pretty awesome comics.“
[update 19:08] Hier nochmal die beiden hervorragenden Tools der NYTimes: The Electoral Map und 512 Paths to the White House.
Die Republikaner lassen sich mal wieder beim groß angelegten Bescheißen erwischen, diesmal in Ohio: Is the GOP stealing Ohio? „Uncertified, “experimental” software patches have been installed on machines in 39 counties of the key swing state.“
[update 21:50] Obama pullt am Wahltag dann noch einen Gangnam (nein, er tanzt nicht rum). Damit dürfte die Wahl wohl endgültig für Romney gelaufen sein, Obama hat sich seinen Joker bis ganz zum Schluß aufgehoben:
“I just saw that video for the first time,” Obama replied. “I think I can do that move. But I’m not sure that the inauguration ball is the appropriate time to break that out.”
“Maybe,” he concluded, “do it privately for Michelle.”
[update 22:37] Tweet von Barack Obama: „This guy’s counting on you.“
Guardian: America: Elect! The action-packed journey to US election day in graphic novel form
[update 0:13] Obama surft in den letzten Stunden am Wahltag nochmal auf Reddit vorbei. Oder einer seiner Praktikanten.
Reddit, this is important: I want to thank you all again for the reception you gave me in August for my AMA. Good questions. Definitely not bad. I’m checking in because polls will start closing in this election in just a few hours, and I need you to vote. Millions of Americans have stepped up in support of this campaign over the last 19 months, and today we decide what the next four years look like — but only if we show up.
Vote Obama, get some Romney in your Voting Machine (UPDATED)
Ihr erinnert Euch an den Simpsons-Sketch zur Wahl 2008? Als Homer Obama wählen wollte und die Wahlmaschine für McCain abstimmte? Nun, das gibt’s jetzt auch in echt:
My wife and I went to the voting booths this morning before work. There were 4 older ladies running the show and 3 voting booths that are similar to a science fair project in how they fold up. They had an oval VOTE logo on top center and a cartridge slot on the left that the volunteers used to start your ballot.
I initially selected Obama but Romney was highlighted. I assumed it was being picky so I deselected Romney and tried Obama again, this time more carefully, and still got Romney. Being a software developer, I immediately went into troubleshoot mode. I first thought the calibration was off and tried selecting Jill Stein to actually highlight Obama. Nope. Jill Stein was selected just fine. Next I deselected her and started at the top of Romney’s name and started tapping very closely together to find the ‘active areas’. From the top of Romney’s button down to the bottom of the black checkbox beside Obama’s name was all active for Romney. From the bottom of that same checkbox to the bottom of the Obama button (basically a small white sliver) is what let me choose Obama. Stein’s button was fine. All other buttons worked fine.
2012 voting machine altering votes
[update] In dem Zusammenhang mehr als interessant: Romney Family Owns Voting Machines (Danke Thomas!). „Tagg Romney, the son of Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney, has purchased electronic voting machines that will be used in the 2012 elections in Ohio, Texas, Oklahoma, Washington and Colorado.“
[update] Forbes: „The machine in this video is from the same company that installed the last minute software patches on those machines in Ohio.“
512 Paths to the White House:
Sehr schickes Tool der NYTimes zur US-Wahl heute: 512 Paths to the White House: „Select a winner in the most competitive states below to see all the paths to victory available for either candidate.“
America watches itself at The Vote:
Großartig! Eine Online-Plattform, die Videobeweise für Unregelmäßigkeiten während der US-Wahl morgen sammelt: „If you encounter a problem at your polling place be prepared to use your smart phone to document what is happening and then share that content on your YouTube, Twitter, Instagram or Ustream account by using #VideoTheVote so our team can follow your stories. Keep watch on democracy this election.“ Mother Jones: Craziness At The Polls? Get the Evidence on Your Smartphone.
Michael Moore: A Message from the Elderly to Mitt Romney
Youtube Direktmotherfucker, via Dangerous Minds
„If your Voter Surpression throughout this beautiful country enables Romney to houst Barack Obama… we will burn this motherfucker down.“ Großartiger Wahlmotivationskurzfilm von Michael Moore.
Gum Elections 2012:
Who sucks most? Vote with your Gum.: „Gum Election is a $15 street art project by Stefan Haverkamp and James Cooper. The purpose of the idea was to encourage people to vote on Election Day as well as keeping the city a little cleaner.“ (2008) (via Animal NY)
